In particular, the table can be used to estimate the long-term performance of your sports betting methods

Average Quarterly Decline

Using an “average of quarterly declines” is a more robust measure of risk. It also is perhaps more useful and practical for many sports investors, who might add money to their accounts periodically and “start fresh.” The Monte Carlo analysis allows us to see what kind of declines we would endure during an “average” quarter.

Percentage of Time Near Peak (or % of Time In Decline of More than 10%; 5%)

When investments are going well, everyone is happy. However, when things inevitably turn down, investors feel the pain. The “Largest Decline” and “Average Quarterly Decline” (in previous sections) measure the magnitude of the declines. Situs Judi Bola Resmi

The “Percentage of Time Near a Peak” (or conversely, the % of Time in a Decline) measures how long we endure pain. We believe that many investors will find this indicator intuitively interesting. If we have an edge, we will tend to earn money in the long run. However, from time to time, we will suffer losses. For our statistical simulations, we studied the percentage of time we fall below a peak by worse than -5% and worse than –10%.

Table 1 can help you understand the ups and downs of sports investing. In particular, the table can be used to estimate the long-term performance of your sports betting methods. For example, if you bet 1% of your bankroll and hardly experience declines of more than -10% from recent peaks, then you might have a long-term winning percentage in the area of 57% (normalized for moneyline sports like baseball). However, if you regularly experience declines of -50% from peaks (while betting 1% on each play), you either have a slight edge in handicapping – or no edge at all. Here are some other notes:

Note that Table is based on a bet size of 1% of your bankroll (as well as 100 plays/quarter). You can “ratio up” results based on different sized bets and the number of bets you average a day.
If you do NOT have an edge in sports handicapping, you will experience huge ups and downs. Even if you have a slight edge (52%-53% winning percentage), you can expect declines of more than –50% at some point – and average quarterly declines of around –8%.
If you are able to achieve a 57% winning percentage, you will limit “bad case” declines to around –10% and will spend almost all of your time (97%+) at – or close to (within -5%) – your bankroll’s peak.
Disclaimer
We do not guarantee that the trends and biases we’ve found will continue to exist. It is impossible to predict the future. Any serious academic research in the field of “market efficiencies” recognizes that inefficiencies may disappear over time. Once inefficiencies are discovered, it is only a matter of time before the market corrects itself.

Table 1 can help you understand the ups and downs of sports investing. In particular, the table can be used to estimate the long-term performance of your sports betting methods. For example, if you bet 1% of your bankroll and hardly experience declines of more than -10% from recent peaks, then you might have a long-term winning percentage in the area of 57% (normalized for moneyline sports like baseball).

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